Gold climbs to $4,734, eyes $4,750 breakout as Fed fears ease and central banks keep buying

Gold rose $23.60 to settle at $4,734.50 per troy ounce on COMEX on Friday, putting the metal on track for a weekly gain. Fears about aggressive Fed tightening eased through the session. Traders are watching $4,750.

The July 2026 futures contract hit an intraday high of $4,760 before settling at $4,742.10, tracking a session range of more than $80 as the market sorted through competing signals from the Middle East and Washington. Spot gold has gained in four of the past five sessions, recovering the ground lost during the late-April slide to $4,585.

The macro tailwinds

Treasury yields edged lower through the week as markets repriced the Fed’s rate path. The shift was from “prolonged hold” toward a view that slowing growth may force the central bank’s hand by Q4. Lower yields cut the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion. That relationship has anchored gold’s 2026 rally.

The US dollar index slipped 0.4 per cent against a basket of major currencies on Friday. A weaker dollar makes dollar-denominated gold cheaper for buyers holding euros, yen, and sterling.

“Gold is trading like a macro asset right now. It’s responding to real yields and the dollar, not just headline risk,” an analyst at Invezz said.

The geopolitics floor

The Iran conflict has put a persistent bid under gold since February. Peace negotiations made tentative progress through early May, but the geopolitical risk premium is still in the price. Crude oil whipsawed from $126 back toward $114 a barrel. Gold did not retreat proportionally. Something beyond the immediate conflict is underpinning the safe-haven bid.

Central bank buying has supplied a structural floor. The People’s Bank of China added to its gold reserves for the eighteenth consecutive month in April, purchasing an estimated 6 tonnes. Global central bank net purchases hit 289 tonnes in the first quarter, according to the World Gold Council. That was the strongest first quarter on record.

The technical picture

Gold has tested $4,750 three times since late April and has not managed a daily close above it. Technical analysts say a confirmed break triggers a move toward $4,850. After that, $5,000 starts looking like a real target.

Support sits at $4,680, the 50-day moving average. A close below that would be the first bearish signal in six weeks.

Open interest in COMEX gold futures rose 2.3 per cent on Friday. New money is entering the long side, not short covering. The Commitment of Traders report showed managed money added 8,400 contracts to net long positions in the latest reporting week.

“Every test of $4,750 gets a little weaker on the sell side,” an ING commodities strategist said. “The market wants to go higher. It’s just waiting for the catalyst.”